Honk Once for Big Men, Honk Twice for Swingmen

With the NBA Draft looming less than two weeks away, the pressure is on virtually every NBA GM to do the most with their selection. Portland GM Kevin Pritchard is in the unique position of deciding what to do with the first choice. The argument amounts to a discussion of college basketball’s two most dynamic underage all-stars. C Greg Oden, (Ohio State) 19, and SF Kevin Durant, (Texas) 18, are the two possibilities when the Trailblazers select first on June 28^th. While the Blazers try to address this dilemma with algorithms and computations that could make Bruce Partridge’s head spin, and a series of extensive interviews with these two incredibly talented All-Americans, their decision boils down to whether they want to build their franchise around a post-player or a swingman.

Just as Pritchard must make this decision about the focus of his team, the USA Basketball selection committee, headed by Hall of Fame Syracuse coach, Jim Boeheim shoulders the tough task of evaluating talent and prioritizing the positions best suited for a gold medal run through the Pan-American Games. While Boeheim and his staff will select an entire team as opposed to a single player, each addition to the roster will address the same question that Pritchard is facing. Will we find success with big-bodied post-play, or will a guard-based, face-the-basket approach put more points on the board?

In the post-Jordan era, many teams find it difficult to pass on scorers who do their damage from the perimeter. Psychology professionals might term this “Bowieism,” as it was Portland’s choice back in 1984 to pass on MJ with the second pick in favor of the 7’1’’ Kentucky Wildcat, Sam Bowie. Bowie spent eleven injury-riddled years in the NBA, bouncing around the league. In 2007, Greg Oden looks much more like the first big man drafted in ’84, Akeem Olajuwon, than the one who followed.

(Bowie wears 54 for Kentucky, as he defends Houston's #45 Akeem Olajuwon. They were picks 1 and 2 during the stacked 1984 draft, which also included Jordan, John Stockton, Charles Barkley and Sam Perkins.)

Just as we expect Kevin Pritchard to make the sensible decision and go with Oden for the first pick, Jim Boeheim & co. will likely follow suit two weeks after the Draft in putting the burden of USA Basketball on the broad shoulders of the big men. While the U.S. boasts dead-eye shooters like Tennessee SG Chris Lofton, 20.8 ppg, 47.9% from the field and 42% from downtown in ’07, and UNC Tar Heel slasher SF Wayne Ellington, their games largely depend on a frontcourt presence. Roy Williams' system in Chapel Hill relies on filtering the ball through C Tyler Hansbrough's hands. His aggressiveness opens up passing lanes for Ellington, who scores the majority of his points on mid-range jumpers or open three's after good ball movement. If the ball did not enter the post, defenders would not be forced to collapse toward the middle, and there would be little room for shooters to find their shot. Ellington can look back to the Georgetown/UNC battle on March 25th, when the Hoyas' frontcourt of PF Jeff Green and C Roy Hibbert "started" the offense, demanding the attention of double-teams and finding the open man. The result, a GTown win 96-84 and five Hoyas in double-figures.

Even though Green is opting for MSG on the 28th instead of the GIAC on the 12th, NC State PF Brandon Costner can fill that role as the smaller, yet equally dangerous post partner. With his smooth south-paw style, Costner is most comfortable with his back to the basket, scoring frequently on a sweet left-handed baby hook. He also can face the basket and even finish with his off-hand. At 6'8'' 230, he will complement Hibbert the way Green, 6'9'' 235 did during the season.

Even if BC's jumper isn't what Green's is, his aggressive style of play will alleviate some of the pressure off of Hibbert, who isn't quite used to being the go-to-guy. Costner comes from a system in which head coach Sidney Lowe (pictured below) made his post-game the priority. Finding the seam in a zone and being able to spot the open man will suit Costner well during the Pan-Am games, where international competition will likely try to limit the U.S.’s athleticism with a healthy helping of zone defense.

If Boeheim had the opportunity, he would undoubtedly save a spot for both Oden and Durant. However, if he were in Kevin Pritchard’s position and could only select one for his team, know that he'd support the big-man philosophy and let the 7-footer roam the center of Jay Wright's defense.