Great Expectations

If the now thirty-two hoopsters who will be at tonight’s Pan-Am Trials (5 PM – 7 PM) were all in action on a given night during the ’06-’07 season, you could expect them to combine for over 438 points, 168 rebounds, over 77 assists and a collective shooting percentage of just over 48%. (Two additional point guards, PG Sean Singletary of UVA and PG Dominic James of Marquette are joining the party.) Tennessee Vol’ SG Chris Lofton is the only attendee to contribute more than 20 points per game over the course of the season. Washington PF Jon Brockman is the top rebounder, cleaning the glass at 9.6 boards per game. KU PG Mario Chalmers and Marquette SG Jerel McNeal share the honor as the top thieves, nabbing the rock from the opposition 2.6 times a game. As impressive as these numbers are, none of these four make the cut as being the most statistically significant player at their position among the Pan-Am’sters. Here are five can't-miss prospects based on their performance last year.

Starting from the point, it’s hard to bypass Michigan State’s PG Drew Neitzel’s numbers, and maybe even tougher to overlook his intangibles. Despite losing three key contributors from the ’05-’06 campaign to ’06-’07, Neitzel’s numbers barely wavered. The graduation or departure of C Paul Davis’s 17.5 points per game on 57% shooting, SG Maurice Ager’s 19.3 ppg at 46% and G/F Shannon Brown’s 17.2 ppg at 46% from the field left Neitzel with few options when looking to dish. While his assists dropped from 5.7 per game to 4.3, he shouldered the offensive burden as a scorer. From his 8.5 points per game in ’05-’06 on 41% shooting, Neitzel managed to tack 10 more points onto that average (18.1) while also improving his accuracy to 43%. The southpaw even led his team further into the ‘tourney during his junior season than they had gone the year before with a substantially more talented team. The Spartans fell victim to George Mason’s Cinderella story in the first round of the ’06 tournament. In ’07, they beat Marquette before C Tyler Hansbrough (33 points, 9 rebs) and UNC ran roughshod through them 81-67. Neitzel still put together a gritty performance, dropping 26 points and dishing out 5 assists despite being defended by the ultra-tough PG Ty Lawson.

The shooting guard is by far the most stacked position at the Trials. Ten guys are competing to play the two in Rio. Aggie SG Josh Carter might not be one of the biggest names, but he is a lethal, opportunistic shooter. At 6’7’’ 195 lbs., Carter never struggles to get his jumper off. Playing alongside PG Acie Law IV, Carter’s role as a spot-up shooter led him to 11.8 points per game on a ridiculous 49.2% from the field, and a flat 50% from three. As an oversized guard, he creates mismatches defensively, and takes advantage of his height, grabbing four boards a game. On a squad where shots will be tough to come by, Carter’s accuracy is invaluable.

While it is tempting to select a small forward who stands out defensively, such as SF James Gist, (.9 steals per game, 2.1 blocks per game) NC State’s SF Brandon Costner is too versatile to pass up. At 16.3 points per game and 7.3 rebounds, this 6’8’’ 230 lbs. lefty is quick enough to rove the baseline and strong enough to bang bodies in the paint. He’s no defensive slouch, averaging almost a steal and a block per game. Most importantly, BC loves the limelight. He scored 20 on 3-of-6 shooting from downtown against Maryland, lit the Dukies up at Cameron Indoor for 30 and 7 boards, and went toe-to-toe with Tar Heel PF Brandan Wright, going off for 28 and 3 rebounds.

’Bama’s PF Richard Hendrix could earn the label as “statistically significant” simply from his stature. He rings in at 6’8’’ 265 lbs., second in size only to C Roy Hibbert’s 7’2’’ 278 lbs. Hendrix uses his size on the offensive end, but seems to have incredibly quick feet when playing D. In only 27.6 minutes of action per game, Hendrix was a virtual 15-10 guy at 14.6 ppg, 8.7 rpg. Against the Gators C Joakim Noah and PF Al Horford, he shot 7-for-13 for 16 points along with eight boards – four of which were offensive. On the season, Hendrix made the most of his opportunities, converting baskets at a 60.2% rate.

Finally, C Roy Hibbert, the biggest man in the group, is also the choice-cut of the centers. Even though Memphis’s PF/C Joey Dorsey is arguably the most talented defender at the Trials, (1.4 steals per game, 2.2 blocks per game) Hibbert’s 67.1% field goal percentage is unmatched. He has great hands, which are more like paws when opponents attempt shots in the paint. Hibbert’s 2.4 blocks per game is also the top mark at the Trials. He is not as ferocious a rebounder as some of the other big men, largely because he lacks the foot speed to get into great position. However, his size and strength make him a virtually automatic basket when opponents allow him to set up shop deep on the block.

Regardless of position, two other names need mentioning. SG Bryce Taylor, Oregon’s shooting guard, continues to satisfy my desire for efficiency. He leads all guards with an average of 51.7% shooting from the field. Additionally, the VCU PG Eric Maynor is the Trials' top assist-man, coming off of a 6.4 assists per game season. Maynor, you may remember, is the singular reason that the Rams made the NCAA Tournament. In the CAA Championship game against George Mason, Maynor could have made John Elways jealous with his two-minute drill. Down five with exactly two minutes to play (57-52), Maynor stole a pass, hit a lay-up and converted the free throw for a three point-play (57-55). He then picked the pocket of the GMU point guard and scored again (57-57). Maynor then grabbed a rebound off of a missed three-pointer. With under a minute to play, he drove the lane and hit a crazy leaner to put VCU up two (59-57). To seal the victory, the little-man grabbed another board, was intentionally fouled, and then knocked down both free throws. Check it out. But that wasn’t it. In the next game, the 6-11 matchup between VCU and the vaunted Blue Devils, Maynor did it again, hitting a “dagger” with under two-seconds left for the 79-77 win.

T-minus five hours for the Pan-Am Trials to begin. We can forget the stats from here on out save for one important number. Less than 40% of this incredibly talented group will continue to play past Saturday’s final cut.

For another look at who will be in attendance, here’s the list of all 32 names:

Jon Brockman (Washington / Snohomish, Wash.); Brian Butch (Wisconsin / Appleton, Wis.); Josh Carter (Texas A&M / Dallas, Texas); Mario Chalmers (Kansas / Anchorage, Alaska); Sherron Collins (Kansas / Chicago, Ill.); Brandan Costner (North Carolina State / West Orange, N.J.); Eric Devendorf (Syracuse / Bay City, Mich.); Joey Dorsey (Memphis / Baltimore, Md.); Wayne Ellington (North Carolina / Wynnewood, Pa.); Randal Falker (Southern Illinois / St. Louis, Mo.); Shan Foster (Vanderbilt / Kenner, La.); Alonzo Gee (Alabama / Palm Beach, Fla.); James Gist (Maryland / Silver Spring, Md.); Richard Hendrix (Alabama / Athens, Ala.); Roy Hibbert (Georgetown / Adelphi, Md.); Dominic James (Marquette / Richmond, Ind.); Maarty Leunen (Oregon / Redmond, Ore.); Chris Lofton (Tennessee / Maysville, Ky.); Derrick Low (Washington State / Honolulu, Hawaii); Wesley Matthews (Marquette / Madison, Wis.); Eric Maynor (Virginia Commonwealth / Fayetteville, N.C.); Jerel McNeal (Marquette / Chicago, Ill.); Tasmin Mitchell (LSU / Denham Springs, La.); Drew Neitzel (Michigan State / Grand Rapids, Mich.); DeMarcus Nelson (Duke / Elk Grove, Calif.); Ahmad Nivins (Saint Joseph’s / Jersey City, N.J.); Scottie Reynolds (Villanova / Herndon, Va.); Jon Scheyer (Duke / Northbrook, Ill.); Sean Singletary (Virginia / Philadelphia, Pa.); Bryce Taylor (Oregon / Encino, Calif.); Kyle Weaver (Washington State / Beloit, Wis.); D.J. White (Indiana / Tuscaloosa, Ala.)